The China in MENA Brief — Iran & China

How China and Iran’s Growing Alliance Is Redrawing the Regional Map and Challenging the West

This special brief examines how growing China-Iran cooperation is shaping regional dynamics and challenging Western influence through expanded military and economic ties.

1. Iran Orders Missile Propellant from China

Iran has reportedly procured thousands of tons of ammonium perchlorate, a critical chemical for solid-fuel ballistic missiles, from China via a Hong Kong trading firm. The shipment—potentially enough for up to 800 missiles—is expected to arrive soon, with portions possibly routed to Iran-aligned militias like Yemen’s Houthis. The U.S. has responded with sanctions against both Chinese and Iranian entities involved.

Strategic Takeaways:

1. Expansion of Iran’s Missile Capabilities
   This procurement marks a significant step in Iran’s long-term strategy to expand and modernize its missile arsenal. Solid-fuel technology offers quicker launch times, improved mobility, and greater survivability compared to liquid-fueled systems, making Iran’s missile forces more agile and harder to detect or neutralize pre-launch.

2. Gray-Zone Escalation Through Civilian Channels
   By utilizing commercial intermediaries and dual-use materials, Iran and China are engaging in “gray-zone” tactics—activities that remain below the threshold of open conflict but strategically undermine adversaries. The use of civilian supply chains allows plausible deniability while complicating enforcement efforts by Western powers.

3. Strengthening of Proxy Forces
   The potential diversion of missile-grade materials to Iranian proxies, such as the Houthis, enables Tehran to project power and destabilize adversaries indirectly. These groups gain enhanced capabilities to strike regional targets—including U.S. allies—without direct attribution to Iran, thereby insulating the Iranian state from immediate retaliation.

4. Challenge to U.S. Nonproliferation Strategy
   The U.S. response, centered on sanctions, highlights the limitations of traditional tools in countering proliferation via globalized commercial networks. The case underscores the need for a more integrated strategy—combining intelligence-sharing, maritime interdiction, and diplomatic pressure on transit hubs like Hong Kong—to disrupt illicit missile supply chains.

5. Growing Sino-Iranian Strategic Alignment
   The transaction reflects a deepening strategic alignment between China and Iran, extending beyond energy and trade to military and technological domains. As Beijing asserts a more assertive global posture, its role in enabling Iranian military modernization raises new concerns for regional stability and U.S. interests in the Middle East.

2. Iran FM, China’s Ambassador Discuss 25-Year Deal

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi recently held talks with Chinese Ambassador to Iran Cong Peiwu to reaffirm the importance of the 25-year strategic cooperation agreement between Tehran and Beijing. The meeting focused on enhancing bilateral ties and strengthening mutual understanding as both nations move forward with implementing the long-term accord, which has been in place for several years.

Iran continues to push for closer alignment with China and Russia as part of its broader vision for a multipolar world order—one that reduces dependence on the West. Amid ongoing tensions with Western countries, particularly regarding its nuclear program, Iran sees China and Russia as vital partners for diplomatic backing and economic cooperation.

Iran’s state media (IRNA) emphasized the mutual commitment of both sides to deepening strategic relations and fully activating the provisions of the long-term deal.

Strategic Takeaways:

1. Institutionalizing a Non-Western Axis
The reaffirmation of the 25-year agreement signals Iran’s intent to embed itself more deeply within a China-Russia-centered geopolitical bloc, aiming to counterbalance U.S. and European influence in the Middle East and beyond.

2. Hedging Against Western Isolation
With renewed international scrutiny of its nuclear ambitions, Iran is solidifying ties with powers that can offer diplomatic support at the UN and alternative economic lifelines to mitigate sanctions.

3. Long-Term Strategic Patience
The continued implementation of a multi-decade agreement suggests both countries are investing in a sustained partnership, likely to include infrastructure development, energy cooperation, and military coordination.

4. Strengthening China's Footprint in the Middle East
For China, deepening engagement with Iran advances its Belt and Road Initiative and extends its influence in a region traditionally dominated by U.S. allies, without directly confronting the West.

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