The China in MENA Brief - June 16, 2025
Hormuz Stable for Now, but the Risk is Real
1. Hormuz Stable for Now, but the Risk is Real
Despite Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear and energy infrastructure, crude oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz—transiting nearly 20 million barrels per day—remain uninterrupted. Analysts are now more focused on the absence of disruptions than the strikes themselves. While oil futures briefly spiked to five-month highs (Brent up 7% on June 13), physical supply remains stable and markets have partially cooled. Brent is down today, and under $70 per barrel.
Beijing is closely monitoring the situation. China is the world’s largest oil importer and a major consumer of Iranian crude, much of it routed through Hormuz. While no supply shock has materialized, the current volatility underlines how further escalation could threaten China’s access to discounted Iranian oil, which is an estimated 10-20% of China’s oil imports.
Strategic Takeaways:
Energy Fragility: The lack of disruption masks deep fragility. Any spillover into maritime trade routes could harm China’s energy security and Belt and Road-linked logistics in MENA.
Risk Hedging: China is likely coordinating with state oil companies to draw on strategic reserves and may increase near-term purchases from Russia or West Africa.
2. Beijing Warns of Broader Conflict Fallout, Reaffirms Neutral Mediation Role
Foreign Ministry spokesperson Guo Jiakun issued a firm statement condemning Israel’s recent attacks on Iran, describing them as the catalyst for “the spike of military conflicts.” China called on all parties to “immediately take measures to ease tensions” and warned that continued escalation—or regional spillover—would cause “other countries in the Middle East to inevitably bear the brunt.”
In parallel, Foreign Minister Wang Yi held direct calls with Iranian FM Seyed Abbas Araghchi and Israeli FM Gideon Sa’ar, urging both to “resolve differences through dialogue.” Beijing stressed that “force cannot bring lasting peace” and reiterated its vision of “common security” based on multilateral consultation.
Strategic Takeaways:
Dual Engagement Strategy: By speaking to both sides, China reaffirms its posture as a neutral powerbroker capable of maintaining access and influence across rival regional blocs.
De-escalation Narrative: China’s public statements center on crisis containment, reinforcing its self-image as a peace-seeking major power to contrast their claimed Western-aligned militarism.
Shielding Regional Investments: As China deepens its Belt and Road footprint across the Gulf and Levant, spillover conflict threatens billions in energy, logistics, and infrastructure investments. Just three weeks ago, China opened its railway to Iran— a major part of their 25-year agreement, and faster way of trading goods.
© 2025 The China in MENA Project. All rights reserved.
Newsletter every Monday & Friday ( X: @chinainmena)
Managers Zineb Riboua ( X: @zriboua) & Alexander Aibel
Contact: riboua@chinainmena.com